The Second Coming of Microsoft

To say that the post-2005 world hasn't been kind to Microsoft is an understatement.  After all, how does a company that once sat atop the Silicon Valley mountain suddenly wake up and find itself trailing behind a few remarkable upstarts and an old rival bouncing back from the brink of obsolescence?

Much has been made of Steve Jobs' return to Apple and the salvation of his company, but let's not forget that while Jobs was painting computers with a rainbow brush, Microsoft still held a firm grip on desktop computing with a whopping 94% of the market running some version of Windows.  This was, of course, at a time when--for most consumers--desktop computing was the only interaction they had with technology.

Estimated OS market share in 2003 according to http://www.w3schools.com

Forget Windows ME: Windows XP was the operating system of the new millennium.  Not only was it praised by critics, but it was beloved by the overwhelming majority of its users--so much so that even over a decade after its release (and Microsoft's discontinued support), there are still plenty of users clinging to the familiar standby.

20GB iPod circa 2004

Unfortunately, the release of the iPod signaled a transition from desktop to mobile computing, and Microsoft would need to scramble to keep up.  The disaster of Windows Vista soured the taste of Microsoft for a lot of people.  By the time Microsoft found its groove again with Windows 7, the world was already beginning to accept smartphones as their device of choice.  Microsoft needed an answer, and it needed to show it was willing to take risks to find that answer.

For better or worse, that answer came in the form of Windows 8 and Microsoft Surface: the tablet/laptop hybrid to end all tablet/laptop hybrids.  Unfortunately, the limits of Windows RT and the general lack of app support left Microsoft trailing behind the ubiquitous Android and iOS.

In the end, Windows 8 proved to be a Catch 22 for Microsoft.  By making touch the primary interface for Windows 8, Microsoft proved it could make a modern OS, but in doing so it all but completely alienated its loyal desktop computing fanbase (thank God for Windows 7).

The seemingly inescapable Windows 8 Start Screen

If nothing else, Windows 8 highlighted the potential for a mobile device dedicated to the Windows operating system.  And while most people will consider the Surface Microsoft's first foray into that much-lauded marriage of hardware and software, let's not discount the wild success of the Xbox and Xbox 360 to that point.  Aggressive marketing that pitted the Surface against both Apple's iPad and MacBook Air not only raised eyebrows, but helped change people's perceptions of what kind of company Microsoft was.  It restored faith in the Microsoft brand.  And that was important, because that loyalty is now being put to the ultimate test.

In the early days of personal computing, hardware was king, and IBM ruled supreme.  In the 90's, power shifted to software that helped us use that hardware effectively and efficiently.  Microsoft prospered with the success not just of Windows, but the Microsoft Office suite that became the standard for home and business users alike.  As we turned the corner of the new century, data was king, and Google became the masters of helping us access and manage that data.

In 2015 the name of the game is the "experience."  Whether you're Apple, Google, Microsoft, or Amazon, the goal is to provide a single, cohesive experience.  It's not just the data: it's the ability to access all my data via a single source.  Whether its music, movies, maps, the web, or documents and photos, the goal of each company is to become the one-stop shop for their users to produce, consume, and manage the data they want.

It's also an era where we care less about pure hardware specifications and more about making our technology as comfortable as possible.  Apple has embraced this design philosophy from the start, and their success is built on the idea that the end user is willing to pay a premium for technology that looks elegant and feels intuitive.

To that end, Microsoft gave Windows 8 a facelift and released Windows 10, which retains much of the advances of Windows 8 while harkening back to the desktop computing Windows was based on (welcome back, Start Menu, old friend).  It's another step toward an operating system that adapts to the device you're using.

The Microsoft Surface Pro 4

Nothing exemplifies this better than the new Surface Pro 4, which finally seems to fulfill the promise of being a tablet that can truly replace your laptop.  Whereas the original Surface was maligned for its mobile architecture and the limits of what felt like a half-Windows in the "RT" version, the new Surface runs a full desktop-class architecture, proving that Microsoft has learned how to pack power into a competitively thin and light tablet.  Improvements to the TypeCover keyboard and trackpad (while still curiously sold separately) have helped to blur the lines between the two form factors.

If that were not enough, the Surface Book is Microsoft's loud and clear warning shot not just to Apple, but to every PC manufacturer on the market.  Packing a powerhouse into a sleek and sexy shell has never been Microsoft's forte, but they're clearly learning how to do just that.  Gone are the days of the $300 netbook.  These devices are priced at premium levels that put them in direct competition with Apple's iPad Pro and MacBook Pro lines.

It's easy to talk about Microsoft's failures: Windows ME, the Zune, Windows Vista, and Windows 8, but it's clear newly appointed CEO Satya Nadella is hoping that successes like Xbox, Windows 7, Windows 10, and the buzz around the Microsoft Surface is enough to position his company as not just a software distributor or hardware manufacturer, but a brand that provides a premium experience in the minds of his consumers.

You may not notice from this picture of the new Microsoft Surface Book, but that screen is actually a detachable tablet

People who walk into the Apple Store are not looking for technology on the cheap.  Most understand that there is a "tax"involved when pledging allegiance to Tim Cook's ecosystem.  Microsoft is hoping to build themselves to that point, but it's difficult to see if they are there yet.  The success or failure of these new Surface products will likely dictate the direction of the company over the next several years.  At the very least, the design language of the Surface Pro 4 and Surface Book are a step in the right direction.  While the two devices seem to be little more than two sides of the same coin (a tablet that's also a laptop and a laptop that's also a tablet), don't let that overshadow the big picture here: Microsoft is telling the competition it is ready to reassert itself as a major player.

Windows 10 Mobile

There is one market left for Microsoft to shock, and it's arguably the most difficult.  The smartphone industry is dominated by Apple and the myriad of Android-based manufacturers.  In many ways, these companies are at the polar opposite end of the spectrum from Microsoft.  Whereas Apple and Google are trying to position their mobile devices as capable desktop replacements (iPad Pro, anyone?), Microsoft needs to take the power of its desktop OS and shrink it to something that will fit in your pocket and still feel familiar.

Even if they're successful doing that, it's a tall order to convert the established bases of iOS and Android users.  Microsoft needs a final trick up its sleeve: something that will show us that Windows is not only the desktop OS we prefer, but that we no longer need to compromise capability and compatibility for portability and design.

Doing that won't by any means knock Apple or Google off their lofty perches, but it will at least ensure that Microsoft is a name we don't forget about.  If the Xbox 360 helped Microsoft survive during the early years of the new millennium, the Surface Pro 4 and Surface Book may be the buoy that keeps them afloat until the next great technological revolution.